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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."